000
FXUS61 KOKX 290525
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north and east through the area tonight,
followed by a weak trough or cold front late tonight. The
boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a
frontal wave moves out of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to
the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by
another frontal system over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

A warm front continues lifting north and east of the area
early this morning. Temperatures tonight will run above normal
by about 10 degrees, with lows in the 50s and low 60s. Patchy
fog is possible overnight into early Monday morning, and could
be dense in a few locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday,
with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm
front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that
attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.

Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface
trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help
lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of
a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key
factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front
advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a
bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the
latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across
eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the
Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get
into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid
80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts
of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat
for late April. See Climate section below for records data.

The back door cold front advances south and west into the
evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the
60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in
the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for
fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period
followed by a slight warmup for the week`s end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and
thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area  during
the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out
into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure
over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the
south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best
forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and
central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this
event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking
to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger
during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging
returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been
more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to
be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the
intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the
area Saturday into Sunday.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a
backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual
warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5
to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and
Sunday knocks temps down a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak trough continues to push east of the terminals early this
morning. A back door cold front approaches in the afternoon and
moves through in the evening.

VFR through 00z Tuesday. A few showers are possible late this
afternoon and early this evening and an isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out. For now will include a PROB30 for SHRA.

Ceilings should then begin lowering thereafter as the back door
cold front pushes east with MVFR to IFR development occurring
03-05z. IFR conditions are likely early Tuesday morning.

Light winds to start will become NW-NNW. Winds will begin to
shift to the S-SE with sea breeze development in the afternoon.
Winds begin to back to the ESE-E this evening and then E
overnight. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the TAF
period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds at KLGA may become NNE-NE this morning/early afternoon
before shifting to the SE.

A shower, possibly a thunderstorm, could occur 21-00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR to IFR likely mainly in ceilings. Slight
chance of a shower.

Tuesday: MVFR to IFR in the morning, some VFR possible in the
afternoon. Shower possible late afternoon, more probable
Tuesday night with potential thunder.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week
under a weak pressure gradient regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974
BDR: 86/2017
NYC: 89/1974
LGA: 88/2017*
JFK: 85/2017
ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
CLIMATE...