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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 23 Oct 2021 18:03:25 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231751
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Rick, located a couple of hundred miles south of Zihuatanejo, 
Mexico. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Hurricane Rick are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. 
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Rick are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Rick (EP2/EP172021)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RICK...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 23
 the center of Rick was located near 14.9, -101.8
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 5A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231757
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RICK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 101.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on 
Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday.  This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231528 CCA
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 27/1200Z
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.  THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231530 CCA
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z

Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite 
images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a 
well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the 
circulation.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening 
trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. 
Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone.   An 
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and 
structure information. 

Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the 
hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or 
at about 345/6 kt.  Rick is expected to move between 
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the 
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. 
There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance 
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking 
Rick on a mainly northward track.  The ECMWF is slower and farther 
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over 
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast.  The official track 
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous 
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.

As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick 
appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next 
24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high 
oceanic heat content.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index 
continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into 
Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, 
which is near the upper end of the guidance.  In 36 to 48 hours, 
increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend 
to end or even result in some weakening.  
 
Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued 
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest 
coast of Mexico.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.
 
2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early 
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday 
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W   90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
 60H  26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 231446
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
15N 105W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)  20(26)  14(40)   X(40)   X(40)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1  12(13)  51(64)  24(88)   4(92)   X(92)   X(92)
L CARDENAS     50  X   2( 2)  20(22)  33(55)   6(61)   X(61)   X(61)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  26(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  19(20)  47(67)  15(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   2( 2)  22(24)  19(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
15N 100W       34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Rick Graphics

Hurricane Rick 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 18:02:48 GMT

Hurricane Rick 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 15:22:31 GMT